Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
